Evans World 2011 –Week Four

I’m really having a hard time getting my head around what this season is going to look like in the end.  It’s by far one of the most lop-sided and unpredictable seasons that I can recall.  I don’t say this as an attempt to explain away my loss this week to Mike (although I won’t be making any predictions about my own team this week, just in case), but more as an astute analysis of an otherwise ponderous set of circumstances that is the statistical nature of professional football players.  In other words, what the fuck is going on in FF this year?  Breathe, Brad, Breathe.  There’s still lots of season left and with 3/4 of the league vulnerable to bad weeks there’s always a chance.

LET’S HEAR IT FOR THE BOYS
Gary and Tom have got to be feeling good this morning.  Both of them are off to their best starts since 2008 at 2-2.  No longer do they start seasons 0-4 or 1-3.  Now they can feel confident going into each matchup with the strong possibility of a win.  Tom especially has got to be feeling good considering the whopping number of points he left on his bench last week, although I doubt Owen Daniels will spend much more time there now that Andre Johnson is out for a while.  Gary, as usual, has a team that would have been a powerhouse one or two seasons ago, but this year still manages to put up some solid points.  I particularly like his pick of A.J. Green (more to come on him), and I doubt he could have predicted the success of Darren McFadden this year.  I worry about Gary’s chances about some of the higher point leaders down the stretch, but maybe that one pickup or trade will make the difference (time for a new QB, Gary).  Regardless, I think it’s safe to say that Gary and Tom are actually enjoying playing FF this year.

WUNDERKIND
I’ll admit it, I was sure this was the year Nathan would lose.  Call it intuition, call it desperate longing, call it what you will, I didn’t think Nathan’s team had enough to make it.  Now, I’m worrying about yet another repeat.  This week demonstrated what I believe is the norm for Nathan the rest of this season: a strong finish on the backs of Michael Vick, Wes Welker and the uncanny ability of Nathan to know exactly who to start.  Of all the owners I’ve played against, Nathan has the best sixth sense or just outright ability to know who to pick up, when to play them, when to dump them and how to make a trade.  It’s not much of a comfort when looking at the records or the trophy, but it is something that should be at least acknowledged and then hate him for it.  Definitely like the new team name.

NEED PLAYERS? ASK JASON
Take a look at Jason’s team.  While they’re not powering him to the top of the standings just yet, he does have a multitude of tradable players ready and waiting for teams like me, Kevin and Mike to enhance a spot or two.  Seriously, folks.  Take a long look and tell me there isn’t at least one player of this that might look better on your team, then send the trade request.

This week a single thought kept creeping into my head about several players in the NFL.  So now, for your reading pleasure, I give you the newest column to this awesome blog:

ARE THEY FOR REAL?
This will be an astute analysis of the FF capabilities of many players, some long-time picks, some noobs, and what I think their impact will be this season.  We’ll see for sure if they are for real … or not … (insert Jack Palance impression there).

1. Cam Newton – It’s hard to get on board this bandwagon, isn’t it?  A rookie QB on a team that hasn’t done well for years with a new coach.  Yeah, I’d doubt it too.  But Newton has averaged 20 points each week for Mike, and the critics seem to think this won’t be changing any time soon.  What do I think?  I haven’t seen him play a full game yet (not even when he scorched the Packers defense), but it’s hard for the numbers to lie.  I expect some defensive coordinator to figure him out eventually, but for now, Newton is for real.
2. Rex Grossman – It’s not hard to believe that Grossman is sitting in our waiver wire right now after so many lackluster FF years.  But Grossman has finally found an offense that he can work in very well.  He’s still making the poor choices and creating turnovers at just the wrong time.  The point is that he is actually improving as a QB, something that he never experienced in Chicago.  I would like to think his confidence will only grow and Washington will enjoy the benefits of it.  But, with only 41.93 points scored so far this season, I have to say that as an FF QB, Grossman is still not for real.
3. A.J. Green – Speaking as a guy who drafted Julio Jones, there were definitely plenty of rookies who were predicted to do well.  So far, Green is rising above the dire mediocrity of his team.  What’s more, he’s managing to make the tough catches and work his way downfield, much like T.J. Housh used to do in the glory days.  For me, it amazes me that he’s gotten so many points on a team that I was sure would be a FF black hole this year.  So, unless that changes, Green is for real.
4. Danny Woodhead – It really shouldn’t surprise us that a Patriots RB can go from en fuego to el sucko so quickly.  Lest we forget the FF busts of Moroney, Faulk, Taylor and so many others over the years.  I think it’s funny that Yahoo! is telling owners to pick up Stevan Ridley this week, suddenly writing off Green-Ellis and Woodhead because of one strong week.  The problem is they really could be right because it’s impossible to predict the Patriots running game.  So, sadly, I have to say that Woodhead is not for real.  I see him back on the waiver wire by their bye.  What a waste of a great Nebraska back.
5. Ahmad Bradshaw – So far, my uber-surprise of the year.  While he was definitely a top 20 RB, he’s managed to move himself up into the top 5 each week.  He’s finally found his groove, and that has helped Mike a lot.  However, the Eli Manning Giants are definitely trend followers.  If they have a bad game in the next week or two, you can expect a run of bad weeks to follow.  The Giants just always seem to find a way to dig themselves into a deep hole, and they can’t always find a way out of it.  But, from an FF perspective, Bradshaw is definitely for real.  I see him finishing in the top 10 RB for the year.
6. Dez Bryant – This is a tough one.  You can tell by his play that he really wants the ball and really wants to win.  Unfortunately, he’s the only player on the Dallas offense who’s playing like that right now.  The Cowboys have no identity right now and they’re playing like it.  It’s going to be a long season of uncertainty for that team.  So, while I might say that Bryant is for real, he just can’t be as long as that team plays the way they are.  Sorry, Gary.
7. Willis McGahee – The first back to rush for more than 100 yards against the Packers defense, it’s fun to watch this guy still play hard after so many seasons.  McGahee won’t go quietly into his retirement and the Broncos (and Tony) will thank him for it.  But I don’t see him as a long-term solution to the Broncos problems at RB.  They’re very much a passing team right now, so McGahee will do little more than get a few yards on first and second downs and then maybe a few goal line runs.  Sorry, not for real.
8. Beanie Wells – This one was a bit more predictable than the others, but he was still part of an offense that was reinventing itself this season with Kevin Kolb.  Wells’ fumbling problems seem to have diminished significantly during the lockout, and he’s starting to put up some solid numbers again.  He’s at the mercy of the coaches to see if this will change at all, but if they’re smart they’ll use him just as they did last week a lot more.  Jason’s going to have to really think hard about whether to start him each week, and that makes him for real.
9. Victor Cruz – I remember all of us looking at each other trying to figure out who this guy was that Jason drafted last year.  He wasn’t even drafted this year.  Only Berk can say whether he thought picking Cruz up was a filler or an honest belief in his abilities, but it was the best pickup of the year so far.  One thing missing from Eli Manning’s career has been that go-to target (like Harrison and Wayne for his brother).  He never developed that relationship with a receiver to make the amazing plays you’d expect from someone of his talent.  Perhaps Cruz is that player.  Perhaps.  For now, Cruz is for real, at least until Eli starts playing like he normally does and throws the ball to the DB covering Cruz instead of Cruz himself.
10. Darren Sproles – Can you believe no one drafted him?  Sure, we mocked Gary for it since it seems like they’ve been linked forever.  Sproles is now averaging 16 points on a Saints team that still spreads the ball out to a dozen players (anybody else notice Henderson’s lack of points this week?).  So, while it’s hard to say it with more assurance, Sproles is for real once more, and Kevin gets a sure slot player every week.
11. Tim Tebow – Not real.  Never will be.

RANDOM THOUGHTS

• Seeing that much pink during a football game is just weird to me.
• Did you hear about Suh and Best buying new football gear for a Detroit high school that had all their gear stolen?  Not only is that a class act by two exceptional players, it’s another sign of changes in Detroit.  The town and their players will only get closer, and that will lead to great things ahead.  God bless you guys.
• Speaking of Detroit … their game Monday night against the Bears is their first MNF appearance since 2001.  OUCH!  Something tells me they won’t have that problem again for some time.  The Bears are going to get a rude wake up call.
• One last Detroit note:  Megatron is a stupid, stupid nickname.  He was a whiny little bitch on the cartoon.  Johnson’s having a huge year without the complaints.  Get a new nickname.
• Speaking of the Bears … I guess they figured out that maybe running the ball is a good idea.  It was almost half time before Cutler threw 1 pass and they were already up 24 points.  I love it. 
• Tony Gonzalez.  He’ll never quit.  They’re going to cart him off the field on a stretcher, but he’ll still raise his hands and catch a ball.  Pure awesome.  Pure Canton.
• Hester broke the record for return TD with 11 and Woodsen tied the record for INT returned for TD.  Two players with the skills to walk the walk.  They’re fun to watch every week.
• I have more respect for Tom Brady this week.  After passing Joe Montana for most passing yards by a QB, he humbly admitted that he wasn’t on the same list as Montana.  The numbers (and championships) don’t lie.  He does belong on the same list.  But I respect a player who acknowledges the greats of the past with such humility. 
• I don’t understand, looking at the top 30 players in our league, how they can’t be 100% owned by Yahoo! FF owners.  Seriously???  There are FF leagues out there with people so stupid that Wes Welker sits on the waiver wire.  I think Yahoo! should search for those people and lock them out.  Let them play FF with ESPN or NFL.  We’re professionals here.
• Kudos to Ryan Succop who is the only true offensive player for the Chiefs right now.  What I did not know was that he was Mr. Irrelevant in 2009.  I can’t recall another Mr. Irrelevant that actually rated a FF start.
• Dream Team.  Whatever.  See my pre-season comments about that one.  I enjoy being right.

WEEKLY AWARDS

• MVP – Aaron Rodgers continues to amaze me.  He just keeps getting better and better each week.  NewT is enjoying Rodgers success just as much, I’m sure.  I think it’s very likely that Rodgers will be a Top 5 pick in next year’s draft.
• Honorable Mention – This was definitely a huge week for defenses, many of which sat on the benches to the chagrin of their owners.  But Berk’s Ravens defense had the monster week that every FF owner dreams of, and shattered Kevin’s hope of pulling out a victory.  I won’t go on again about how highly I value a good FF defense, but this week just proves that I’m right.
• Best Owner Move/Choice – I really like Nathan’s pick of Gresham at TE.  Another Bengal who is doing well despite the odds.  Not a monster week, but a solid one.  Great pick.
• Unfortunate Bench – Oh, so many choices for this one this week!  Those of us with a loss can feel the sting even more.  The Texans defense might have helped Mike a lot.  Even if Kevin had started Romo and Turner he still would have lost, so I’ll give Kevin a break there.  NewT managed to win even with the Bears defense and Gore on the bench.  So, I’ll give it to Jason for losing to Tom (something we should never do) by leaving Beanie Wells on the bench.
• Lawrence Philips Award – No question on this award this week.  The Dallas Cowboys, the entire team mind you not just Romo, showed just how bad a team can be.  Well, I usually mean high school team, but this will do.  Giving up a 23-point lead and losing a game.  2 TD to the Lions defense!  Horrible play by everyone on that team in the second half.  I don’t know how a team recovers from a performance that bad.  I really don’t.

Bye weeks start this week!  That means check your lineup, Tom!  I know I spent more time talking about the players than us this week, and I apologize for that.  They’re just more interesting.  Hope you all have a great week and good luck in Week 5!