Evans World – Week 11

I swear to God, guys, I really do think through my predictions and my analysis of matchups each week.  This past week just blew my fricking mind away.  Berk loses.  Nathan loses, earning his first losing record this deep into the season in years, the bottom feeders win both of their matchups.  And worst of all, Tom beats me.  They weren’t necessarily flukes.  There weren’t any players that really did anything that couldn’t or wasn’t predicted by other analysts.  At this point I’m afraid to make predictions, but I’ve got to write about something … so here goes!

• Berk’s loss certainly throws the playoffs standings in question.  It really could come down to the Ritchie-Berk matchup in Week 13 to decide who gets the byes.
• Looking at the top 6 teams this week and their upcoming matchups, there are really no guarantees.  I’d still say Berk has the best chance for a spot, but it doesn’t look like either Tony G or Tom is going down without a fight.  If Tom somehow manages to beat Berk and then Ritchie beats him in Week 13, that could make Berk’s spot in the playoffs very questionable.  Aren’t you glad I jinxed you last week?
• Neither Marshall nor Jason are guaranteed to keep their exact spots in the top 6 after this week, but they still have Week 13 to keep their spots even if they lose in Week 12.  Why you ask?  Even if they lose, at 7-5 they’d still have 1 win over the plethora of 5-6 teams sitting out there itching for a way into the playoffs.
• Speaking of the 5-6 teams, I’m having a hard time remembering when Nathan was last under .500 with 2 weeks left in the season.  Probably have to go way back to the 2006 or 2007 seasons.  Certainly a 3-game losing streak is a rarity for him in our league.  What makes it worse is that he is the total team point leader for the entire league but sits precariously at the #6 spot (Kevin can appreciate that particular suckage).  Fortunately, Nathan faces me this week, so the odds are in his favor and he faces Tom the following week.  The #6 spot is Nathan’s to lose, and everyone else should be rooting for me and Tom if you want a chance to play for the money.
• Mike, I haven’t forgotten you, and you’ve got to be feeling pretty good about where your team is right now.  I know you lost your matchup with Marshall this week, but you still have Calvin Johnson so I think that keeps you in any matchup any week.  If you get through Jason this week you’ve got a good chance of beating me in Week 13 and squeaking your way into the playoffs on the back of your winning record.
• Kevin and I are pretty much out of this thing, barring some significant luck and monster point weeks.  Gary decided to be the major spoiler for Kevin this week and came out huge. Big win for him to jump both Kevin and me in the standings.  I’d say Gary is looking for a winning record for his season, but Marshall and Jason will probably keep that from happening.  Maybe a .500 season if he has another surprising week, or if AP starts to meet his FF expectations.

RANDOM THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK

• I HATE losing to Tom.  After Sunday, I was down by only 1.68 points.  After Monday night the adjustments increased it to a less-painful number.  The pain is still there, trust me.  He killed my chances at the playoffs and can say he beat me this year.  I hope to face him again in the consolation bracket to kick his ass properly with Rodgers back in my lineup.
• I really thought Tony P had a shot at spoiling the week for Ritchie, but then the Bengals DEF took the field.  27 points from a DEF.  That’s insane.  Then again, it was against the Browns.  I don’t blame Tony for benching Newton, but after watching him play last night, I think Tony needs to think three or four times before deciding whether to start Newton or Wilson.  Newton played like one of the best in the league last night, beating the Patriots with his legs and his arm.  Amazing play.
• Like I said, big win for Gary this week. Their matchup was fun to watch all weekend.  They were rarely more than 8 points apart from each other any time I checked.  I wouldn’t have thought that Greg Olsen would have been able to keep Kevin in the game, but his huge night probably made Gary sweat a little bit.  Kevin is certainly enjoying the Nick Foles ride, and I think we’re all a little envious of that.
• Calvin Johnson is a FF God, certainly in the Pantheon of the best.  On a whim I looked back over his FF seasons since 2007 and was shocked to see that he averaged only 201.03 points a season, most likely because he didn’t have a solid QB to throw to him until Stafford came on board.  But in this season and the last he’s clearly been one of the top 5 receivers in FF points each season, and he’s always been a clutch player when needed.  If you think back over the last few years, don’t you think he was the best FF WR out there?  Not so fast, my friends (thank you, Lee).  I was also shocked to find that other WR like Andre Johnson, Welker, Owens, Harrison and Fitzgerald would often score more total points than him over a season.  Crazy.
• One of the fun things I found while looking back through league history?  In 2008 Berk changed his team name to “Beer and (.)(.)’s and Bush.”  LMAO.  I’d forgotten about that little gem.
• This is definitely the year for discovering new FF TE. Let’s look at all the new TE that are making a mark this season as high point scorers: Clay (Ritchie), J Thomas (Tony P), J Reed (Nathan), J Cameron (Berk), Rudolph (Gary) and Bennett (Brad). I’d expect to see more TE taken in the first 10 rounds than in previous seasons since you can almost guarantee WR2/3-like points from these guys.
• Yeah, that was a missed pass interference call against the Panthers DEF.  I know how that feels.  You all know which game I’m referring to, right?
• I’m glad that Bills’ fan is okay, but what a dumbass.  I hope he wasn’t a huge Bills fan or that banishment from the stadium will hurt more than he hurt the guy he fell on.
• I think Ahmad Brook’s hit on Brees is a good example of how the new rules have softened football, for better and for worse.  I doubt Brees or his family will see fault with the rule.  I’m just saying that I agree more with Brooks.  The game has softened quite a bit in the past 20 years.
• I don’t know much about football, but I know better than to headbutt someone while wearing a football helmet, especially if the other guy isn’t wearing one.  Suspension well deserved.
• I don’t know why, but this GIF just cracked me up, so I’m sharing it with you. Enjoy.
  
  
  
• This one too:
  
  
  
• So, how much do you take the weather into consideration in your lineup choices?  I think it is easy to predict when the weather might hamper a player’s FF numbers, say with high winds reducing the effectiveness of a QB and WR and increasing the points for a RB.  But what did you all do about the Ravens-Bears game?  Did any of you honestly think you should bench Marshall or Forte or Flacco or Smith or Rice?  Probably didn’t even enter your minds, but I’m curious.  As for me, benching Jeffrey wasn’t an option, much less a choice I considered because of the weather.  Just wondering what you guys do the rest of the time when it seems like weather is going to kill your FF numbers, and how big a factor it really is.  With so few FF monsters this season, it seems like you play your best no matter what.

SPEAKING OF WEATHER …

In the Wendel house we all sat down and got ready to watch the Ravens-Bears game and were amazed at the dark clouds that rolled in over the stadium.  We weren’t upset that the game was suspended, and flipped over to other games.  Before the game started again, we started to see pictures come in from the damage out of Illinois.  It broke our hearts.  We’re not a week away from Thanksgiving and dozens of families are without homes to bring their families together into any more.  It’s saddening, it wrenches at your heart.  You can’t think about a stupid football game.  But later on we learned something intriguing.  The death toll from the 50 tornadoes in Illinois was so low partially because there were so many people watching the Bears game that they were alerted properly and took shelter.  I feel less guilty for watching the rest of the game in my safe, warm house while so many families are struggling to pick up the pieces of their lives.  I plan on giving some money to help them out.  I hope you will too, even though they’re Bears’ fans.

WEEKLY AWARDS

• MVP – Brady, even though he lost the game and cursed at the ref, won the matchup for Marshall and kept his playoff hopes alive.  I think we now understand why he fell to the 4th round of the draft.  Marshall now gets to face Gary and Tony P, the EW playoff spoilers.
• Honorable Mention – I mentioned the huge week by the Bengals DEF, but let’s not forget the 17-point game by the Seattle DEF for Berk.  Even still, the award goes to McCoy and Jason this week for playing tough through injury and actually winning his matchup.
• Best Owner Choice – I loved Jason starting Harry Douglas.  He had a huge week when the whole team just sucked the big one.  It hurts to see Atlanta fall so far, especially in an FF way.  It’ll be interesting to see what happens down there in the off-season and how it might impact high WR picks like Jones and White.
• Unfortunate Bench – I can’t remember what I was thinking.  It was something like, “Kaepernick has been really bad lately, and the Saints are going to stuff the 49ers passing game, so you’d better not start Boldin this week.”  Maybe that has some logic to it, but not really when you look at it.  Especially replacing Boldin with Stills.  It lost me the matchup and my shot at the playoffs and allowed Tom to win.  Probably the worst FF call I’ve made since trading Calvin Johnson to Nathan.
• Lawrence Philips Award – Wow, no award this week.  Anyone hear of a story/candidate this week?

WE ARE A PART OF THE HUSKER NATION

• Well, we’re back.  I’m stunned that score was as close as it was. 
• I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again … we have some young players who make young player mistakes, and when they grow they are going to be crazy good.  I look forward to those days.
• I’m still not sure what needs to change after the season is over.  Something needs to.  If it’s not personnel, then a mentality change is in order.  Attitude kills us any given Saturday as much as any mistake we make on the field.  That attitude usually comes from the team leaders.  And who are our leaders?  I hope they step up soon.  We need them.
• If the Husker Bowl Game is on my 40th Birthday, I’m going to be pissed.

Good luck to you all this week!  It’ll be interesting to see where we are a week from now with one week away from the playoffs.