Evans World 2012 - Final

Congrats to Nathan for winning his fourth Evans World Championship!

Looking back on the blogs of the year I was surprised to recall how Nathan was 2-2 to start the season and things were looking grim.  But he stayed true to his God-given FF skills and took off on a 6-game winning streak that was ended by Tony P in Week 10.  By then Tony had beaten Nathan twice.  Revenge is best when served in the cold December air, and that’s what Nathan got last weekend.  Marshall texted me Sunday night that perhaps he had congratulated Nathan too soon.  Turning on the SF-Seattle game I quickly started to see why.  Mindi and I had a great time watching Seattle kick the living shit out of the “best team in football today” thanks in large part to Marshawn Lynch.  I was cheering for you, Tony, I really was.  How awesome would that comeback have been?  Alas, it just wasn’t enough and Nathan gets to keep the trophy for one more year.  Well, he’s had it even the years he didn’t win, so why change now?  ;)

RANDOM THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK

• For the record, I was 2-0 against this year’s Champion.  I know, I know.  I’m awesome.
• Congrats also to Mike who finally lived up to his team’s name and actually won some money this year.  Well, he broke even.  Even still third place is the highest he’s finished since 2006, denying Gary his first-ever EW winnings.  Aside from that poorly timed Week 15 blowout, Mike should be incredibly happy with his season.  Great lineup choices.  Great waiver pickups.  Maybe the 3rd edition of his team will be the one that wins it all next year.
• For the record Tony P. scored an average of 110 points every week this season.  I think we’d all kill for that kind of FF fun.
• Gary, don’t change a thing next season.  You drafted well (well, the system did most of it for you).  You selected your lineups perfectly each week.  You just came up short a little bit.  Would I hitch my wagon to the Giants next season?  Hard to argue with the success of the Manning-Cruz combo this year, but I think they need to shore up a few things on the line and in their running game in the off-season before I start drafting Eli over some of the other FF QB’s out there (more on that later).  Whatever changes you made this season paid off.  Like I said, don’t change a thing next year.
• Looking at the lineups for the last weekend I didn’t see a single flaw or poor choice.  You guys are getting really damn good at this.  I’m impressed!
• It probably aches a little for Tony P. today that he lost the Championship matchup because his #1 draft pick, Arian Foster, went out of the game with an irregular heartbeat, the kind of thing you just don’t see happen that often.  Not to pour more salt in the wound but Foster has averaged 12.9 points a week this season.  Had Tony P. gotten even an average performance from the top pick he would have beaten Nathan.
• Oh, yeah, Tony Gonzalez averaged 12 points a week too.  That would have put Tony closer to a tie with Nathan, but Nathan’s bench scored 50 points so he would still have lost.  Ouch.  The FF Gods have spoken.
• This year marked the lowest number of moves/trades by Nathan in EW history. At least as a league we blew away last year’s anemic trade numbers.

WEEKLY AWARDS

• MVP – Calvin Johnson.  God, I hate to admit it.  Let’s all learn a valuable lesson from your Commish.  Don’t give up your first round pick for just anybody.  Think it through, make sure it’s a solid improvement and then decide whether to pull the trigger.  I didn’t, and Nathan is holding the trophy thanks in large part to Johnson and his record-setting season.  I think it’s great that Johnson did break Jerry Rice’s record.  I think it speaks volumes to the level of play, talent and dedication he has that the record comes while his team is playing some of the worst football in the league.  We’ve seen that out of Detroit before.  Everyone remember Barry Sanders in 1997 when he shared the MVP award with Brett Favre and then retired on top?  Similar, but not exactly the same.  I expect Johnson to be back next season and drafted in our first round.  Tony, I’m sorry I gave him to Nathan for a song.  Just another small example of the FF Gods working against you this year.
• Honorable Mention – I give this one to Matt Ryan who made a good case for MVP this past week and sealing the deal for Mike against Gary.  Aside from that horrible performance in Week 11, Ryan has been a superb FF QB racking up points with Jones, White and Gonzalez.  If we were a keeper league, he’d be a definite keep.  I also give a shout out to Marques Colston who silently helped Nathan week after week to reach his Championship.
• Best Owner Choice – Matt Ryan over Josh Freeman was a difficult choice most weeks for Mike.  This week he chose wisely and went with Ryan.  Is Freeman a good FF QB next season?  Let’s get him another target besides Jackson and develop Doug Martin into catching passes, then we’ll talk.  Until then he’s going to stay a late-round backup.
• Unfortunate Bench – NONE.  As I said, perfect lineups by all four teams this week.  Awesome.
• Lawrence Philips Award – Not sure if you all saw this play or not, but aside from the replacement refs it’s the single-most dumbass play I’ve seen all season.  Detroit is down hard with less than 2 minutes to play, but they’ve just gotten a safety and have some time to drive down the field and restore some dignity to their ugly game against Atlanta.  Unfortunately they let Stefan Logan return the punt.  Not sure what he was expecting or what he saw, but he decided to fair catch a punt back on the 4-yard line.  The nearest Falcon player was about 15-20 yards away from him, and he had plenty of lanes to choose from.  What a fucking idiot.  I think that’s exactly what Jim Schwartz was thinking on the sideline.  Cut his ass.  That just doesn’t happen at this level.

EVANS WORLD 2012 REVIEW

Well, the season has come and gone so it’s time for the Commish to put on his hindsight glasses and really reflect and judge on the good, bad, ugly, etc. of our time together.  I hope some of this info proves fruitful for you as you look ahead to our draft next year, or at least give you a few things to think about.

MVP – This was a hard one to award this year.  For the first time in a long time there wasn’t one player who put themselves far above the others in terms of leading one of our teams to FF success.  There was no Priest Holmes is what I’m saying (everyone remember Tom’s first season with us???).  I can look to a number of players that did really well. Drew Brees scored the most points for a QB.  Tom Brady certainly helped Nathan win the championship.  Aaron Rodgers remained solid.  Calvin Johnson, nuff said.  I’ll cover the other gems that played really well for us this year, unexpectedly or not.  If there was one player who got mentioned week in and out contributing to the success of a team it has to be Eli Manning.  Eli was actually the #20 FF QB in our league, points-wise.  But the Manning-Cruz combo contributed greatly to Gary’s unprecedented success this year.  Gary’s team rose and fell with his performance.  Eli has been dangerous in the past, but this year he was usually productive.  Eli gets the award, but like I said there wasn’t one player who just wowed me this season.  There were lots of points distributed to so many players, it’s impossible for me to select just one, if not five or so.

FF GEMS

• RG3.  I put him first because I called it, but truthfully it wasn’t a hard thing to guess.  The bar was set high when he started.  The good news was the Redskins designed their offense around his skill set and it worked out great.  Certainly from an FF perspective if not the actual team’s record.  Considering he did as well as he did with so many offensive players coming on/off the injury list, I think he exceeded expectations.  I see him as a second-round draft pick next year, perhaps a first-rounder if someone likes to take the risk or if the Redskins draft a marquis WR/TE that will stay healthy long enough to develop the Dalton-Green/Rodgers-Nelson/Manning-Thomas type of relationship.
• Brandon Marshall – He definitely exceeded expectations, and the Bears finally have a solid FF WR on their roster.  It’s still Jay Cutler throwing to him, but you can’t argue with the numbers.  #6 WR in the league.  I see the Bears continuing to be a FF team for the next year with Marshall, Forte and maybe Jeffrey (if he stops getting penalties). 
• Dez Bryant – With all the problems down in Dallas Bryant was never one of them.  Perhaps it was the tight leash placed on him before the season started.  For FF owners it paid off huge.  Bryant put up great numbers each week, and there’s no reason to expect that to change.  If Dallas goes out and drafts a solid QB his FF potential will grow and grow.  He’s that good.
• Randall Cobb/James Jones – Green Bay will continue to be a FF powerhouse until Rodgers hangs up his discount double-check.  But predicting which WR will be his go-to guy has become nearly impossible to predict without first consulting the weekly injury report.  Cobb and Jones were the only two to stay healthy all year, so they got the bulk of the numbers we expected to see from Nelson, Finley and Jennings.  I see Green Bay paying the money to keep Jones, but any team in the league would be lucky to get him.  From an FF perspective Jones will be huge wherever he lands.  Cobb will be a third/fourth round pick next year, depending a lot on what happens with Driver/Jennings in the offseason.  Green Bay is still a crowded place for receivers, but just like New England they’re all still FF Gold.
• Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles – Talk about unexpected.  Coming off a torn ACL the whole season was in question.  You could see that in our draft when we waited until the third round to touch either of these guys.  They’re easily first/second round picks next season.  I’ve already gone on about how much I’ve admired how both of them have played this season, despite their injuries and the inadequacies of their respective teams.  FF owners everywhere rejoiced at their return and will again next season.
• Doug Martin – What a find by Mike!  Not since the days of Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott have RB from the Bucs been relevant.  I expect the offensive coaches refining their play calling around the capabilities of this kid.  If they could take a little pressure off of Freeman, I could see Martin having the kind of FF impact that Marshall Faulk had back in the day.  Exciting stuff!  I think it all depends on what the Bucs do during the off-season to resolve the known issues with this team.
• Peyton Manning – Come on, you weren’t sure if he was going to be back or not.  He’s back.  #4 QB this season.  First round next fall?  Probably not, but he won’t drop to the bottom of the sixth round like he did this year.

FF DUDS

• Chris Johnson – Nuff said.  Seriously, is anybody planning on drafting him anywhere in the first six rounds?  Any Tennessee Titan?
• The Eagles – What a sad year for that team.  Vick, McCoy and Jackson were all major duds this season, and McCoy was drafted in the first round … not so much next season.  Hell, probably not even until the third round.  A lot is riding on who replaces Reid and Vick.  Stay tuned.
• Larry Fitzgerald – It absolutely kills me to see a WR with this much talent wasted on such a shitty team.  I could argue that Fitzgerald, given a QB of Stafford’s skills, could easily mirror if not surpass the numbers that Calvin Johnson put up this year.  Sadly, he’s faded into FF oblivion to the point where he doesn’t even get enough catches and yards in a PPR league to get a weekly start.  I hope he moves on to a team where he can return to his FF glory.
• Maurice Jones-Drew – So much hope and potential lost, and the entire team went down with him.  Hell, I’m not sure he’ll be back next season at all, certainly not back in the first round.  Too many other RB will take that spot.  Even if Tebow finds his way onto that team I think the Jags are a FF abyss for at least one more year until they figure a few things out, so MJD will have to wait too.
• Rob Gronkowski – What?  Why is he a dud?  Well, he isn’t but I wouldn’t say he met expectations.  His mid-season injury didn’t help matters much.  Of course, he was still the #5 FF TE this season.  Okay, fine, he’s not really a dud.  But nobody is saying he’s responsible for the Patriots’ success this season.

REGULAR SEASON HIGHLIGHTS

• Gary’s 0.03 point win over Berk – Classic.  It’s matchups like that which make FF fun.  Well, for everyone except Berk at least.
• Tony P. dominating the season only to lose in the Championship – Tony sat alone at the top of the rankings for over 2/3 of the season, only to lose at the bitter end.  Tony, this is happening far too often for you.  I honestly don’t know what you can change, but I think if you ever DO win this league you should quit while you’re on top because there are no guarantees you’ll be back again.  LOL.
• The success of Gary – I’ve said it often enough, but congrats to you Gary for your best EW season ever.  Looking forward to seeing what magic you’ll bring next year.
• 10-team League – Anyone who has contact with Tom or Kevin in the next 8 months please remind them we want them back.  Do I think the point totals or outcomes would have been that different if we had 12 teams?  Not so significantly that I want to put asterisks next to all the records made this year.  In truth I would have expected 1 more team near the very bottom and yet another team near .500.  Certainly the player choice with 10 teams made the waiver wire more enjoyable than in the past.  Even still I think we are all playing FF at the level that we need the additional challenges that come with 12 teams.
• Weren’t they supposed to suck this year? – Welker.  Gonzalez.  Reggie Wayne.  Peyton Manning.  Roddy White.  Yeah, wrong on all counts.  Take that, FF magazines.

WHAT I GOT RIGHT

• Looking back at my predictions:
• Marshall did pretty good his first year back making it to the playoffs.
• Mike won some money, but nothing else.
• Ritchie did not repeat.
• Gary had his best season ever.  Remember how much of his team was autodrafted?
• Nathan wasn’t trade happy (says the guy who gave him CJ) but his success was tied some weeks to the Saints.
• I was right about the QB-WR combo with Mike and Gary.
• I was right about no RB cracking the top 10.
• Brandon Marshall.
• The FF value of the Atlanta Falcons.
• RG3
• Peyton Manning.
• The only two mistakes:  Jimmy Graham and Jordy Nelson.  In my defense both players lost stats due to injury.
• 11-2.  Damn, I’m good.

PLAYERS TO LOOK OUT FOR NEXT SEASON

• The Bucs – Freeman, Martin, Clark.  Like I said, they draft/acquire another key WR and shore up that offensive line, they become a FF joyride.  I expect Doug Martin to be huge next year in FF.
• The Colts – Absolutely crazy how they went from a 2-13 team to a playoff team in 1 season.  From an FF perspective, I would say they’re still just solid #3 slots for Luck, Ballard and Wayne (assuming he stays healthy and active).  But if things continue to gel they could be huge by the end of next season.  Luck may actually become a starting FF QB if he keeps getting those rush TD’s.
• Young RB’s – Martin, Trent Richardson, Alfred Morris.  Lots more quality RB’s to choose from in the top five rounds next fall.  I expect that draft to be more like the drafts of 3-5 years ago which were RB-heavy from the get-go.
• Reggie Bush – Call me crazy, but he’s my outside pick for the surprise FF player next season.  It just seems like that Miami offense is at its best when they’re calling on him to make the play, whether he’s rushing or catching. 
• Russell Wilson – A solid backup QB that could easily make his way to #1 if things continue to go well for him.  Me, I expect a major sophomore slump from this guy.  This year he was the #13 FF QB.  Waaaaaay higher than I thought he’d ever get.

I hope to see you all here again at the end of the summer.  Until then thanks again for a great season and Happy New Year!