When I was growing up, I loved to watch the Oscars ceremonies. I loved everything about it. The movies, the music, the clips, the actors and actresses, the celebrities, the tributes, the hosts, etc. etc. etc. (insert Yul Brynner accent) Hell, I even liked to see the outfits and the dances a little (although it got boring after a while). It was a 4-hour period when I got to feel, even in my PJ's in the basement, like I was participating in a party with celebrities for a night. When I went off to college I stopped watching, primarily because my final papers were due the same week as the show. Since then, I've watched on and off depending primarily on who is hosting that year, because, let's face it, by the time the Oscars air there is no question as to who will win each category. Here's why:
All the pre-Oscar buzz on who will win is determined by a few key statistics: which movie made the most money, which movie got nominated for other awards, which movie are the celebrities talking about (i.e. the actual Academy voters) and which movies are the focus of media attention. Celebrity reporters, who spend their entire week following the success of other people, know all the right people to ask and know all the right questions. By the time they publish their “predictions” it's a good bet that they're right. Not that it really matters because I'll list below how all the voters have voted for each category consistently over the past 15 years. My point is, in a business where information is readily available as long as someone gets something in return, the predictors can be right the vast majority of the time.
The winners of each category follow a very simple criteria. Look at the winners in each category over the past 15 years and find an example where I'm off.
- Best Supporting Actor/Actress - This is the category where voters can honor a popular movie or a famous actor who is due an Academy Award. A nominated movie is one that does well at the box office and may have some tidbits of exceptional acting in them, but in truth it’s just a way to connect a sub-par, popular movie with the Oscars. The MTV Movie Awards are where the popular movies are honored now, and the voters are okay with that. Even still, no harm in getting some of the hipper crowd to watch the show if one of their favorite movies/actors gets nominated. The actors will be someone who's been in the biz for a long time without a win or put in a popular performance. Best examples I can think of:
1. Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight - While he did do a good job of acting and created a good psychopath, so did Anthony Hopkins with far less makeup and effort. Definitely a chance for the voters to honor a beloved friend who died tragically.
2. Jack Palance for City Slickers. Let's face it, that wasn't a stretch of his "acting" talents, not that he had many. The voters were just honoring a guy who'd been in the business for 50+ years.
3. Robin Williams for Good Will Hunting. Williams had been nominated and beaten almost a half-dozen times before, and the voters wanted to award him for that. Sure, he played Sean very well, but it wasn't near as good as his other work. - Best Writing - This is where the movies that won't win Best Picture get their token Academy Award to put on the VHS/DVD marketing. Typically, the movie that is the #2 or #3 Best Picture of the year wins one of the writing awards. It's pretty easy to tell which ones those will be before the show starts. The good news here is that typically the writers of those movies really deserve the award!
- Best Costumes - Colleen Atwood. If she's nominated, you lose.
- Best Special Effects - If it's a Star Wars or Star Trek movie, you lose. I think the voters will give this to any artsy movie before a sci-fi or Fantasy movie, but not always. I keep reminding myself that "The Return of the King" won several awards, including Best Picture (which it deserved).
- Best Actor/Actress - These are pretty much consistent at all award shows. If they won the Golden Globe, they've won the Oscar. No surprises here.
- Best Director - The one category that is impossible to truly predict is the Best Director. As a kid, the winner of the Best Director immediately told you which movie won Best Picture. Now it's not a guarantee. I'm not sure what’s changed. Maybe directors are pissing off the voters. Something has changed and directors have to work to win. I, for one, am okay with it. The director is a HUGE part of what makes a movie great, but they're not the only reason for it. A movie can be Best Picture without honoring the director as well.
- Best Music - The music honored by the Oscars has gotten worse and worse since Howard Ashman died. Can you recall in the past 15 years any time when the music was as good as the days of Beauty and the Beast and Aladdin? Looking at the music over the past few years, you don't see anything all that awesome. Randy Newman will always get nominated but never win. All I can say is where is John Williams? Did he retire?
- Best Picture - This one is a lot harder to predict in recent years. I knew in my heart that The Return of the King was the best movie of the year, but I honestly didn’t think that the movie industry would award such a big honor to a Fantasy film! I was happily surprised. If there is any failing to this category, it usually takes a box office smash to get nominated. Aside from The Hurt Locker, I think you’d be hard pressed to find a recent winner that didn’t crack $100 million.
Probably the most disappointing thing about the Oscars these days is how movies and actors are actually campaigning for nominations. HUH? Isn’t enough to simply have the movie on the screen? Heaven forbid we take a closer look at the smaller movies that are made and released without the help of a major production studio. Oh, no, it appears that Oscar voters are incapable of deciding for themselves which movies to consider. Instead, marketing firms prostitute themselves and the movies they represent to get them noticed and get them votes. Wow, and I thought politics were corrupted by lobbyists.
Now, this year’s Oscars show was pretty lame. I give the organizers credit for bringing in younger hosts in Franco and Hathaway, and I admit that Anne’s youth and energy were the only signs of life to the entire affair. It was a good idea, but poorly implemented. Since the anticipation of who will win is all but eliminated before the first star steps onto the red carpet, let’s look at what can be done to improve the show in general:
- The host makes the show. I think this year proved it better than ever. You could look at every show in the past 40 years and they’ll be marked by two things: which movie won Best Picture, and who was the host. You may never be able to top Billy Crystal, but there’s no harm in trying. Just remember, if the host isn’t interesting or energetic or engaging to the audience (both present and viewing from home), then you end up with James Franco. But, make the host bust out in song (i.e. Hugh Jackman), then there’s hope.
- Show more movie clips. We all love the movies, past and present, or we wouldn’t watch the show in the first place. You’re crazy if you think I don’t want to see clips of Jaws, Ben-Hur, Casablanca or Dances with Wolves each time I watch the show (you can dump Titanic, though)! I would definitely like to know more about the movies being honored, and not just for Best Picture. It’s the best way to get me to go back to the movie theater and watch it.
- Behind the Scenes clips. Want to get me to watch? Show me some bloopers and interesting moments where the stars are human and the movies are taken down from the pedestals for a time. Let me see how hard it was to get through a take, get the set completed, decide what Han Solo would say, etc. Let me see what the process to make the movie was like. You’re already making the segments for the DVD.
- Cut back on the dancing. I know it’s tradition, but seriously, the dances kill the energy and momentum of the show. We want to see the movies.
- Catch someone tweeting from the ceremony and share it on stage.
- Make it okay to make fun of yourself, Hollywood. Don’t take yourself so seriously. Make fun of producers and studios and agents and marketing firms. Definitely don’t waste precious seconds of an acceptance piece doing a placement ad for a service or studio.
- Don’t change a thing about the sets! Some of the best sets I’ve ever seen on stage were at the Oscars.
Well, that’s about it on that. I know I’ll keep watching the Oscars. I can’t help at least watch the “In Memoriam” section to be reminded of all the great talent that has left us in the previous year.
And please, bring back John Williams.
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